Combat for Wargames.pdf

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REESEARCH
PAPER
~CCAAA-,,RP-
8,7- 2
SFILE
i-(10-
o
o
HISTORICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF
COMBAT FOR WARGAMES
(BENCHMARKS)
JULY 1988
DTIC
4
BLECTE
SEP
2
2 1988
PREPARED BY
ROBERT McQUIE
US
ARMY
CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY
8120 WOODMONT
AVENUE
BETHESDA,
MARYLAND
20814-2797
F.
L~I~ama
~88
9 22
036
RESEARCH PAPER
CAA-RP-87-2
HISTORICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF COMBAT FOR WARGAMES
(BENCHMARKS)
July 1988
Prepared
by
ROBERT McQUIE
US
Army Concepts Analysis Agency
8120
Woodinont Avenue
Bethesda, Maryland
20814-2797
ROBERT M-QUiE
Pre
pared
bya...
.
...
CAA-RP-87-2
UNCLASSIFIED
SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE
Form Approved
REPORT
DOCUMENTATION PAGE
I a. REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
l
b. RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS
3 DISTRIBUTIONIAVAILABILITY OF REPORT
0MBNo0704-0188
Unclassified
2a.
SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY
2b DECLASSIFICATIONJDOWNGRADING SCHEDULE
4 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S)
S MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER
(S)
Unlimited
CAA-RP-87-2
6a.
NAME
OF PERFORMING
ORGANIZATION
U.S. Army Concepts Analysis
Agency
6c.
ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code)
6b.
OFFICE SYMBOL
(if
applicable)
la.
NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION
CSCA-MVM
7b ADDRESS (City,
State, and ZIP
Code)
8120 Woodmont Avenue
Bethesda, MD 20814-2797
8a. NAME OF FUNDING/SPONSORING
8b.
OFFICE SYMBOL
(ifapplicable)
10.
SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERS
PROGRAM
PROJECT
TASK
ELEMENT NO
NO
NO
9 PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER
U.S. Army
Analysis Agency
Concepts
ORGANIZATION
8c.
ADDRESS
(City,
State, andZIP Code)
8120
Woodmont Avenue
Bethesda, MD
WORK UNIT
ACCESSION NO
20814-2797
11.
TITLE
(Include Security Classification)
Historical Characteristics of Combat for Wargames
12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S)
Robert McQuie
Final
13a. TYPE OF REPORT
16.
SUPPLEMENTARY
NOTATION
IFROM
13b. TIME COVERED
1937TO
1982
14. DATE OF REPORT (Year, Month, Day)
1988 July
1
15. PAGE COUNT
47
Prepared under an Army concepts Analysis Agency Research Fellowship
COSATI CODES
18.
SUBJECT TERMS
(Continue on reverseif
necessary
and identify by block number)
>
17.
SFIELD
15
GROUP
01
Wargames
SUB-GROUP
1attles;,
Casualties,-
7T
Credibility
Ground
(lombat
Movementrates ;
Chaotic frata •
Weapons Density.,/
Combat
.S1mulations:
Combined Arms C~ombat,
Historical Data
Model Validation.
19.
ABSTRACT
(Continueon
reverie
if
necessary
andidentify
by
block number)
-")For
260 battles between 1937 and 1982 historical data were assembled about the environment
tactics, outcomes and number of weapons in each force. From this data, a series of ratios,
For
percentages
and rates were calculated for each battle describing its characteristics.
determined within which it was usually found and the
each characteristic, the range was
These ranges and medians may serve as criteria of
median value of the characteristic.
credibility for the results of wa•;ames and combat simulations. A procedure is provided for
comparing these criteria with the results.
r.
-
20.
DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY
Robert
McQule
0D
Form
1473,
JUN 86
OF ABSTRACT
*
UNCLASSIFIEDIUNLIMITED
Q
SAMEASRPT
22a.
NAME
OF
RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL
0
21
DTICUSERS
Unclassified
(301)
ABSTRACT SECURITY
CLASSIFICATION
22c. OFFICE SYMBOL
22b
TELEPHONE
(Include Area Code)
295-5228
CSCA-MV
UNCLASSIFIED
Previous editions are
obsolete.
SECURITY CLASSIFICA
rION
OF THIS PAGE
4,.
HISTORICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF
COMBAT FOR WARGAMES
1 CAAI
W
•(BENCHMARKS)
-~~
F-(04l,
SUMMARY
CAA-RP-87-2
THN REASON
FOR PERFORMING
THE STUDY
is because of
a
need
to
compare
wart ames results with military history.
UIJE
PRINCIPALACCOMPUSHMENTr of
.-
eIwork
pev-teJdis
the derivation of
tables of numerical characteristics that describe ground combat during the
last 50
years4
THE-Kt•YASSUMPTION.
Incompleteness of the data does not make it unusable.
HE
PRINCIPAL LIMITATION is the unavailability of data about battles in
Vietnam
and incompleteness of available data on battles elsewhere;
E8I�½DY,906ECTIVE
is to provide a tool for Judging whethey the results of
simulated combat are consistent with historical combat+
--
,'
THE BASICAPPROACH is to assemble available data on actual battles and
calculate simple ratios and rates that describe each.
a.
b.
c.
d.
This involved:
From 260 modern battles, data were gathered about 45 characteristics.
From these characteristics, 28 ratios and rates were calculated.
Medians and ranges of these values were calculated and tabulated.
Forms were designed to compare these values with wargame results.
THE STUDYwas carried out by Robert
McQuie
under the
CAA
Research and Study
Fellowship.
COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS
may
be sent to the Director, US Army Concepts
Analygis Agency,
ATTN:
CSCA-14V, 8120
Woodmont Avenue, Bethesda, .Maryland
,
20,14-2797.
Tear-out copies of this
synopsis are at back
cover.
iii
CAA-RP-87-2
CONTENTS
Page
CHAPTER
1
A
PERPLEXING
REQUIREMENT
OF WARGAME
RESULTS
How Credible are Wargame Results?
How Could That Question be Answered?
2
DATA ABOUT THE RESULTS OF HISTORICAL COMBAT
Sources of the Data About Historical Battles
Peculiarities of the Data About Historical Battles
Characteristics of Historical Battles in the Data
Reliability of Data About Historical Battles
3
CRITERIA OF WARGAME CREDIBILITY
Features of the Data Affecting the Methodology Used
An Implication of the Data for Wargame Validation
Methodology Used for Establishing the Criteria
Credibility Criteria That Were Established
Advantages and Disadvantages of Their Use
4
APPLICATION OF THE CRITERIA TO A PARTICULAR WARGAME
Purpose of the Evaluation
Method of Applying the Criteria
Results of the Evaluation
5
FUTURE WORK
Statistically Based Research
Tactically Meaningful Printouts
Data About Vietnam Battles
APPENDIX
A
B
C
0
E
F
G
GLOSSARY
STUDY
SUM4qARY (tear-out copies)
Contributors
Study Directive
Bibliography
Historical Data Used
Statistical Characteristics
Blank Evaluation Forms
Distribution
A-i
B-1
C-I
D-1
E-1
F-I
G-1
Glossary-1
25
10
4
1
19
qV

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