Flight International 2022 06.pdf

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FlightGlobal.com
June 2022
How
Russian fleet
grab hit lessors
Airbus/Qatar spat
reaches court
p14
Rate of
recovery
Could A320-family output hit 75 per month?
p8
Sales target
Sikorsky sets
its sights on
FVL victory
p16
US Air Force confirms
AWACS successor
p34
9
£5.25
770015 371334
Fresh slip
Boeing delays
first customer
777-9 to 2025
p6
0 6
Comment
Keep on cranking them out
Airbus
The great rate wrangle
While twin-aisle demand remains depressed due to the
pandemic, Airbus has detailed an ambitious plan to boost
A320neo-family output to 75 jets per month. But can its
supply chain cope with such a rapid acceleration?
F
aced with a backlog for
the A320 family that as of
the end of April was within
touching distance of 6,000
aircraft, Airbus has a problem.
Sure, it is a problem born of suc-
cess, but a problem nonetheless:
how does it deliver all those aircraft
to customers in a timely fashion?
If Airbus builds 50 of the aircraft
per month, it would take almost 10
years to fight through the backlog,
and even at rate of 65 – due to be
attained by mid-2023 – that only
drops to seven and a half years.
While not all those orders will
complete – there may well be
further cancellations down the road
– the broader air travel market, par-
ticularly for short- to medium-haul
traffic, is recovering.
Higher fuel prices are also driving
a switch to new-generation aircraft
that fly more frugally. And the fe-
brile recovery in long-haul seems to
be spurring demand for long-range
narrowbodies such as the A321XLR.
Based on those metrics, Airbus
clearly sees market demand as
supporting its decision for even
higher production rates. According-
ly it has taken the decision to ad-
vance the thrust levers, confirming
a plan to take monthly output of the
A320neo family to 75 aircraft – or
900 per year – by 2025.
But the airframer’s single-aisle
backlog is lopsided these days:
where once the A320 ruled, now
the larger A321neo is king. In fact,
almost 60% of the orderbook – or
3,447 aircraft – is for A321neos.
This is a problem, as not all the
airframer’s final assembly lines can
currently build the largest of its
family members.
Internal reconfiguration is under
way to change that – along with
a further expansion by mid-2025
at the company’s site in Mobile,
Alabama – as is a reshaping of Air-
bus’s aerostructures units in France
and Germany to better support its
own operation.
However, there are limits to what
the airframer can do on its own – it
needs the rest of the supply chain
to move in lock-step with it in
order to achieve those higher rates
without encountering production
snarls or shortages.
But the aerospace recovery is not
uniform. The tier ones are most-
ly coping, but further down the
supply chain there are companies
that weathered Covid-19 less well.
Shortages of staff, parts – castings
and forgings for engines, notably –
and raw materials are all reported.
On top of this, there is rising infla-
tionary pressure.
Airbus says it has canvassed its
supply chain about the future rate
rise, but it remains to be seen how
well it will cope, particularly as
Boeing will also be increasing out-
put of its 737 Max family simulta-
neously. The nightmare scenario is
a return to the sight of ‘gliders’ –
completed aircraft without engines
– cluttering Toulouse or Renton.
It is also worth remembering the
fragility of the recovery – Covid-19
has not gone away; Russia’s inva-
sion of Ukraine has sent problems
rippling outwards; and a recession
in large parts of the global economy
cannot be ruled out. Airbus’s suppli-
ers will not thank it if output is ac-
celerated, then later sharply yanked
back in the face of tepid demand.
In a sense, Airbus is damned if it
does, and damned if it doesn’t: it
cannot sit on that enormous back-
log forever. But its bold move to
push production to 75 jets per
month is very clearly not without its
fair share of supply chain risk.
◗
See p8
June 2022
Flight International
3
In focus
Troubled times for Boeing
6
Demanding supply
8
ATR’s spin cycle
12
Qatar loses bid to force Airbus
to build cancelled A321neos
14
The future of FVL
16
Lessors count the cost
18
Army slips FARA schedule
21
Embraer maintains turboprop
course
25
Why the customer is king
for Northrop Grumman
26
Frontier cheered by Spirit
30
Gulfstream’s wind restrictions
32
Wedgetail picked as AWACS
successor
34
Super Hornet jumps at Indian
navy need
40
16
FlightGlobal.com
June 2022
How
Russian fleet
grab hit lessors
Airbus/Qatar spat
reaches court
p14
Markus Mainka/Shutterstock
Rate of
recovery
Could A320-family output hit 75 per month?
p8
Sales target
Sikorsky sets
its sights on
FVL victory
p16
US Air Force confirms
AWACS successor
p34
Fresh slip
Boeing delays
first customer
777-9 to 2025
p6
52
Regulars
Comment
3
Best of the rest
48
Straight & Level
76
Letters
78
Jobs
81
Women in aviation
82
4
Flight International
June 2022
9
£5.25
770015 371334
0 6
Contents
In depth
Recovery position
52
It has been all about survival for
seating manufacturers during
Covid-19. But with travel and
orders ramping up again, they
face new challenges as they
prepare for a return to AIX
Wheels in motion
58
In-cabin access for wheelchairs
could finally become a reality
Sky-high Wi-Fi
62
The demand for connectivity
is greater than ever. What has
changed since the last AIX?
Power shift
66
Can aviation overcome the
challenges of using hydrogen
as a zero emissions fuel?
Aviation alchemy
72
Interest is growing in the
production of eFuels
18
King of spin
Sikorsky
rises to FVL challenge
58
66
June 2022
Flight International
5

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